Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 13.752296 16.783474 20.171679 24.217357 28.893235 34.104052 40.325501
2025-04-27 9.603347 13.554624 18.478704 24.964885 33.173402 43.100552 55.886457
2025-05-04 7.406898 11.724894 17.574569 25.857316 37.034430 51.328299 70.686187
2025-05-11 5.866872 10.283709 16.717510 26.397432 40.161815 58.563084 84.474645
2025-05-18 4.584268 8.869504 15.556148 26.194490 42.048664 64.085238 96.176266
2025-05-25 3.499361 7.485838 14.147264 25.334128 42.761578 67.874290 105.582023
2025-06-01 2.782959 6.546636 13.247498 25.062420 44.201969 72.656483 116.513324
2025-06-08 2.114681 5.515478 11.992476 24.003614 44.247609 75.295770 124.396652
2025-06-15 1.817834 5.152225 11.849562 24.761475 47.185539 82.384243 139.113219
2025-06-22 1.411919 4.434224 10.907766 23.974810 47.471709 85.347600 147.716250
2025-06-29 1.239139 4.213188 10.901419 24.869707 50.633022 92.965207 163.748537
2025-07-06 0.903524 3.467084 9.665964 23.270502 49.291365 93.219598 168.264641
2025-07-13 0.754450 3.203801 9.487963 23.835749 52.070014 100.742080 185.267448
2025-07-20 0.632711 2.980044 9.369250 24.531249 55.195477 109.118423 204.223976
2025-07-27 0.540007 2.810334 9.343410 25.408764 58.717947 118.349076 224.985623
2025-08-03 0.448812 2.602218 9.173894 25.941190 61.599741 126.601655 244.465979
2025-08-10 0.350215 2.309667 8.710932 25.741075 63.000810 132.293054 259.863198
2025-08-17 0.255737 1.967504 8.017938 24.892780 62.993479 135.420442 270.986733
2025-08-24 0.195662 1.738872 7.595775 24.624898 64.137740 140.674057 285.961969
2025-08-31 0.136200 1.454089 6.910291 23.581083 63.519893 142.584655 295.119645
2025-09-07 0.115168 1.381905 6.914037 24.328201 66.845900 152.098047 318.127078
2025-09-14 0.080811 1.176003 6.383003 23.552688 66.711775 154.949624 329.260833
2025-09-21 0.069291 1.132940 6.445940 24.434904 70.399975 165.399581 354.557770